🏗️ Texas CRE Outlook Through Summer 2026: Resilience, Rate Relief & Smart Capital Moves 🤠

📊 Texas Real Estate Forecast 2026: What Investors Need to Know Before Rates Fall 📈

January 12, 2026•3 min read

📊 Texas Real Estate Forecast 2026: What Investors Need to Know Before Rates Fall 📈

🏗️ Texas CRE Outlook Through Summer 2026: Resilience, Rate Relief & Smart Capital Moves 🤠

Texas Real Estate Forecast 2026

Bottom Line: Texas real estate is expected to remain resilient through summer 2026, supported by steady economic growth, continued population inflows, and anticipated monetary easing. While uncertainty around interest rates, inflation, and energy prices persists, Texas continues to outperform the national average across nearly every major economic indicator.

Economic Backdrop: Stability with Cautious Optimism

The current forecast assumes no recession and no major new macroeconomic or geopolitical shocks. Economic growth is moderating, but remains positive. The Federal Reserve is expected to begin cutting rates, which should improve capital market liquidity and transaction velocity. Inflation is projected to continue cooling, even amid trade policy and energy-price volatility.

Texas vs. U.S.: A Clear Outperformance

·GDP Growth: Texas ~2.25%–2.65%, outperforming the U.S.

·Job Growth: Nearly double the national pace

·Income Growth: Strong and stable near 5%

·Population Growth: Continues to lead nationally at 1.2%–1.6%

·Interest Rates: Highest uncertainty, but mortgage rates are expected to ease into the low-6% range

·Inflation & Energy: Moderating overall, but remain key risk variables

These trends reinforce why capital continues to favor Texas, particularly in markets such as Houston, Dallas–Fort Worth, San Antonio, and select suburban growth corridors.

Asset-Class Outlook

Single-Family Housing

The market has shifted decisively toward buyers due to higher inventory and widespread price adjustments. As rates ease, sales activity is expected to rebound modestly—marking the first meaningful growth since the pandemic. Median prices are projected to rise slightly (~1.5%) toward $350,000, while rents remain flat to marginally higher. Sensitivity to interest rates remains the primary risk.

Multifamily

Supply pressure is easing rapidly, with new deliveries projected to fall by more than 50%. While near-term rent softness persists—especially in newly delivered properties—stabilized assets should see flat to modestly positive rent growth. Fundamentals improve materially heading into 2026 as oversupply clears.

Office

Office performance remains bifurcated. Class A+ and premium assets in top submarkets continue to outperform as tenants pursue a “flight to quality.” Older Class A, B, and C properties face declining rents and ongoing space givebacks. Net absorption roughly matches new supply, reinforcing the importance of asset quality and location.

Industrial

After pandemic-era overbuilding, the industrial market is stabilizing. By summer 2026, absorption is expected to nearly match new deliveries. Rent growth resumes across most major markets—including Houston and San Antonio—while Austin continues to correct at a slower pace. Long-term logistics demand remains intact.

Retail

Retail continues to be one of the healthiest asset classes in Texas. Limited new construction has kept supply and demand balanced, supporting solid statewide rent growth. Population growth and consumer spending remain key tailwinds, with DFW leading performance.

Strategic Takeaways for Investors & Business Owners

·Texas continues to outperform nationally across growth, jobs, and population.

·Rate relief is the key catalyst for improved transaction activity.

·Favor:

oStabilized multifamily and industrial assets

oPremium office over commodity space

oWell-located retail with strong demographics

·Exercise caution with assets that are highly rate-sensitive or face structural demand challenges.

Overall Outlook: Cautiously optimistic. The next 12 months favor disciplined investors focused on quality assets, strong locations, and Texas’ long-term demographic tailwinds.

https://www.houstonrealestatebrokerage.com/

https://www.houstonrealestatebrokerage.com/houston-cre-navigator

https://www.commercialexchange.com/agent/653bf5593e3a3e1dcec275a6

http://expressoffers.com/[email protected]

https://app.bullpenre.com/profile/1742476177701x437444415125976000

https://author.billrapponline.com/

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0F32Z5BH2

https://veed.cello.so/FOmzTty6oi9

https://creplaybookseries.billrapponline.com

https://creplaybook.billrapponline.com/

Bill Rapp, CRE Broker

I am a Houston commercial broker, with residential experience, as well as a lending background. I have been in the real estate industry for 14 years and counting, and I have worked in many roles within the industry and each has given me a unique perspective of the industry as a whole. My dedication to clients is rooted in this industry knowledge, but also includes my desire to go the extra mile in networking to source off market opportunities for my clients. Me and my team at eXp Commercial have a cutting-edge technology package that gets the widest exposure for each transaction. eXp Commercial offers a nationwide network through which we can deliver the best exposure and professional advice to achieve our clients’ goals while also minimizing their risk. Clients appreciate my methodical method of discovery in our initial consultation. Through which we can get to know each other and their specific’s business’s needs and objectives on a granular level. Our processes help navigate each transaction and its potential pitfalls through to a successful outcome for our clients. It is my stated goal to provide our clients with extensive market analysis and expertise that fosters innovative solutions and rewarding commercial real estate opportunities.

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